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“History doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme” - Mark Twain.
From Noise to Clarity
Almost by accident - By overlaying price action with the weekly expected moves by options traders we began to see correlations- the market rhyming. As we ran more scenarios, we found hundreds of patterns that repeat with very high statistical correlations of 80-95% across various time periods and implied volatility conditions. And even the outliers are often correlated. The repeated price conditions had similar characteristics when viewed in the context of their expected moves as priced by options traders.
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These price conditions often begin and end at the same “zone” points. They accelerate and reverse off key price levels that can be measured within this context. After mapping virtually every price scenario of every week in the S&P 500 since 2018 we could see measurable moves that behaved similarly and so we measured the correlation.
Some of these moves were random but others were highly correlated. In many cases they behaved the same way 80-95% of the time.
We extended the mapping of the S&P 500 to the, Nasdaq 100 & Russell 2000 to now 12 symbols including over 10,000 price conditions for each week over a five year period.
With over 10 million data points, clear patterns emerge that correlate across the same conditions over different time frames as well as different levels of volatility and even different symbols.
There are many cases where price does the same thing in the same way over 90% of the time – that makes price direction over certain time periods highly predictable. While the reasons for this price predictability can be debated, the fact that price has behaved this way is in evidence in the data.
While there is no guarantee a price condition will behave the way it did 90% of the time in the past – it is highly useful to know which side of history you are on before entering any trade.
In fact, mapping the major indices, and symbols price movement against their expected moves by options traders, yields so many conditions and so much data that it requires a data engine and automation to extract the truths that were otherwise hidden from the everyday Trader.
By leveraging our expertise in cloud technologies, big data & service automation we were able to bring together these capabilities into an easy-to-use platform delivered as an affordable service, that enables anyone to leverage the power of quantitative dynamics for their trading strategies.